KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

75%

75%

64%

48%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

WN2NO 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +31.50u · WN2 −31.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	60.9%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.5%	38.7%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	40.9%	55.6%	0.1%	—	39.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	4.2%	36.4%	66.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	64.2%	29.6%	69.1%	—	43.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	0.6%	67.0%	76.4%	—	53.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	83.2%	89.5%	59.1%	—	46.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	22.6%	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	79.2%	80.4%	54.4%	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	71.3%	75.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	54.6%	76.3%	37.3%	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	52.8%	74.7%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	34.8%	61.5%	43.2%	—	52.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	42.0%	72.6%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	43.9%	63.1%	54.1%	—	57.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	42.6%	73.8%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	40.3%	85.7%	46.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	46.6%	90.3%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	43.0%	90.0%	54.6%	22.4%	53.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	47.6%	90.8%	56.0%	—	54.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	48.8%	89.4%	56.2%	27.6%	55.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	50.0%	90.2%	55.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	88.0%	52.7%	30.7%	51.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	54.2%	88.9%	48.6%	—	54.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.2%	72.0%	82.8%	50.0%	41.4%	57.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	67.5%	81.9%	45.5%	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	65.4%	79.7%	53.2%	45.3%	62.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	69.0%	85.0%	61.4%	—	64.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	70.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0121
AIFS Single	75%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0625
IFS Ensemble	75%	66.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	64%	65.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1325
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	54%	64.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2153
WeatherNext 2	48%	63.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2704

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗