KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

75%

75%

64%

48%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 68.5¢Risks 68.50u

WN2NO 31.5¢Risks 31.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +31.50u · WN2 −31.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:46+00:00	85.9%	46.7%	8.0%	59.4%	62.4%
2026-10-10T05:03:10+00:00	85.9%	46.7%	8.0%	59.4%	62.4%
2026-10-10T05:48:17+00:00	85.9%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	62.4%
2026-10-10T06:33:23+00:00	85.9%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	62.4%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	85.9%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	62.4%
2026-10-10T08:03:36+00:00	85.2%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	85.2%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	85.2%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	85.2%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	85.2%	46.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:16+00:00	85.2%	47.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	85.2%	47.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	85.2%	47.7%	54.9%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	83.3%	47.8%	54.8%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T14:54:09+00:00	83.3%	47.8%	54.8%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:33+00:00	83.3%	47.7%	54.8%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	83.3%	47.7%	54.8%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	83.3%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T17:55:09+00:00	83.3%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:23+00:00	83.3%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:36+00:00	83.3%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	19.7%
2026-10-10T20:10:46+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	78.2%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	78.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:30+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	50.0%	59.4%	78.2%
2026-10-10T22:27:56+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	50.0%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	85.1%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T04:30:53+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	52.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T05:16:07+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	59.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	59.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	87.6%	47.7%	59.6%	69.8%	78.2%
2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00	86.5%	47.7%	59.6%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	86.5%	47.7%	59.6%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	86.5%	47.7%	59.6%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	86.5%	47.7%	59.6%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T10:34:13+00:00	86.5%	47.7%	59.6%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	86.5%	76.2%	57.8%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	86.5%	76.2%	57.8%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	86.5%	76.2%	57.8%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	88.2%	76.2%	57.8%	69.3%	78.2%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	88.2%	76.2%	57.8%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	88.2%	74.8%	57.8%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	88.2%	74.8%	57.8%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	88.2%	74.8%	57.8%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	88.2%	74.8%	53.9%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	88.2%	74.8%	53.9%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	88.2%	74.8%	53.9%	69.2%	78.0%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	53.9%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	53.9%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	53.9%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	53.9%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	53.9%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	48.0%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	48.0%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	48.0%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	48.0%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	48.0%	63.6%	89.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	75.0%	74.8%	48.0%	63.6%	89.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	89%	70.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0121
AIFS Single	75%	66.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0625
IFS Ensemble	75%	66.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	64%	65.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1325
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 14:00	0.2125
National Blend	54%	64.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2153
WeatherNext 2	48%	63.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.2704

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗