KSLC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

38%

26%

25%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.4¢Risks 50.45u

ICONNO 49.6¢Risks 49.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.55u · ICON −49.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	64.0%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	37.4%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	49.3%	34.3%	0.4%	—	33.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	68.3%	80.6%	—	39.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	47.7%	77.8%	55.3%	—	29.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	44.4%	63.3%	29.5%	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	24.5%	62.3%	21.9%	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	3.3%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	9.0%	62.9%	50.0%	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	14.0%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	17.2%	69.5%	24.4%	—	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	14.3%	73.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	10.7%	74.5%	27.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	13.5%	76.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	10.3%	75.7%	27.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	13.8%	76.3%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	14.9%	76.2%	21.3%	0.0%	36.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	18.3%	81.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	16.8%	72.0%	14.7%	—	28.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	21.6%	70.7%	13.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	35.4%	70.2%	24.6%	13.7%	34.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	34.9%	68.7%	23.8%	—	36.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	35.6%	72.7%	23.0%	15.7%	39.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	48.6%	79.9%	32.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	62.8%	76.6%	25.6%	12.2%	57.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.1%	60.5%	79.8%	22.4%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	45.3%	78.6%	23.8%	11.0%	51.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.4%	59.8%	75.9%	18.1%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	70.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0571
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	51%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
IFS Ensemble	38%	66.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3782
WeatherNext 2	26%	65.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5520
ICON	25%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗