KSLC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

38%

26%

25%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.4¢Risks 50.45u

ICONNO 49.6¢Risks 49.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.55u · ICON −49.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:56+00:00	72.9%	41.9%	50.0%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	72.9%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	72.9%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	72.9%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:53+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	55.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:07+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	59.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	59.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	75.8%	41.9%	59.6%	28.5%	67.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00	72.8%	41.9%	59.6%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	72.8%	41.9%	59.6%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	72.8%	41.9%	59.6%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	72.8%	41.9%	59.6%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T10:34:14+00:00	72.8%	41.9%	59.6%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	72.8%	40.2%	55.3%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	72.8%	40.2%	55.3%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	72.8%	40.2%	55.3%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	66.2%	40.2%	55.3%	43.4%	67.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	65.4%	40.4%	55.3%	43.3%	67.3%
2026-10-12T04:01:53+00:00	67.5%	38.6%	34.6%	29.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	67.5%	38.6%	34.6%	29.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	67.5%	38.6%	47.4%	29.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	67.5%	38.6%	47.4%	29.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	67.5%	38.6%	47.4%	29.2%	67.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:55+00:00	57.3%	38.6%	47.4%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	57.3%	38.6%	47.4%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	57.3%	38.6%	47.4%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	57.3%	38.6%	47.4%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	57.3%	38.6%	47.4%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	57.3%	38.6%	46.1%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	57.3%	53.0%	46.1%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	57.3%	53.0%	46.1%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	63.6%	53.0%	46.1%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	63.5%	53.0%	46.1%	43.8%	62.7%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	68.8%	49.0%	48.0%	64.9%	45.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	68.8%	49.0%	48.0%	64.9%	45.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	68.8%	49.0%	45.1%	64.9%	45.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	68.8%	49.0%	45.1%	64.9%	45.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	68.8%	49.0%	45.1%	64.9%	45.3%
2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00	69.9%	49.0%	45.1%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	69.9%	49.0%	45.1%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	69.9%	49.0%	45.1%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	69.9%	49.0%	45.1%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	69.9%	49.0%	45.1%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	69.9%	51.0%	43.6%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	69.9%	51.0%	43.6%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	69.9%	51.0%	43.6%	50.0%	17.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	66.8%	51.0%	43.6%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	66.8%	51.0%	43.6%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	66.8%	42.9%	43.6%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	66.8%	42.9%	43.6%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	66.8%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	66.8%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	66.8%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	66.8%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	17.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	30.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	30.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	30.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	45.7%	50.0%	30.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	69.9%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:39+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	77.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	30.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	75.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	13.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	75.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	13.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	75.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	13.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	75.7%	42.9%	40.4%	45.2%	13.4%
2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00	75.7%	42.9%	40.4%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	75.7%	43.0%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	75.7%	43.0%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	75.7%	43.0%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	77.9%	43.0%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	77.9%	43.1%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	77.9%	34.4%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	77.9%	34.4%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	77.9%	34.4%	51.2%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	77.9%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	77.9%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	77.9%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	13.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	75.0%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	75.0%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	75.0%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	75.0%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	75.0%	34.4%	46.5%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	75.0%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	75.0%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	75.0%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	75.8%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	75.8%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	75.8%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	75.8%	34.3%	45.3%	39.4%	14.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	45.9%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	45.9%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	45.9%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	23.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	24.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	35.3%	24.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	36.6%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	76.9%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	76.1%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	76.1%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	76.1%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	76.1%	38.5%	25.7%	51.1%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	70.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0571
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	51%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2391
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3136
IFS Ensemble	38%	66.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3782
WeatherNext 2	26%	65.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5520
ICON	25%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5655

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261017-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗