KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

56%

44%

44%

23%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.25u · ICON −53.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	71.1%	59.6%	72.2%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	71.1%	59.6%	72.2%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	71.1%	59.6%	72.2%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	72.3%	59.6%	72.2%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	72.3%	59.6%	72.1%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	72.3%	57.6%	72.1%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	72.3%	57.6%	72.1%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	72.3%	57.6%	72.1%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	72.3%	57.6%	66.5%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	72.3%	57.6%	66.5%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	72.3%	57.6%	66.5%	63.6%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	66.5%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	66.5%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	66.5%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	66.5%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	66.5%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	54.8%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	54.8%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	69.2%	57.6%	54.8%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	69.8%	57.6%	54.8%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	69.8%	57.6%	54.8%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	69.8%	57.6%	54.8%	34.7%	71.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	72.7%	52.9%	63.7%	64.8%	75.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	72.7%	49.1%	63.7%	64.8%	75.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	72.7%	49.0%	63.7%	64.8%	75.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	72.7%	49.0%	57.8%	64.8%	75.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	72.7%	49.0%	57.8%	64.8%	75.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	72.7%	49.0%	57.8%	64.8%	75.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	57.8%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	57.8%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	57.8%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	57.8%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	67.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	65.3%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	67.7%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	67.7%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	69.4%	49.0%	67.7%	60.2%	64.4%
2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00	72.3%	49.0%	67.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	72.3%	49.0%	67.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	72.3%	49.0%	67.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	72.3%	49.0%	67.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	72.3%	49.0%	67.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	72.3%	59.9%	58.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	72.3%	59.9%	58.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	72.3%	59.9%	58.7%	59.6%	33.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	69.3%	59.9%	58.7%	59.6%	33.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	69.3%	59.9%	58.7%	59.6%	33.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	69.3%	51.2%	58.7%	59.6%	33.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	69.3%	51.2%	58.7%	59.4%	33.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	69.3%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	33.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	69.3%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	33.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	69.3%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	33.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	69.3%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	33.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	32.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	32.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	32.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	59.6%	59.4%	32.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	58.7%	62.7%	32.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:39+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	74.8%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	32.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	67.6%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	22.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	67.6%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	22.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	67.6%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	22.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	67.6%	51.2%	58.6%	62.9%	22.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00	67.6%	51.2%	58.6%	44.4%	22.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	67.6%	44.5%	56.4%	44.4%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	67.6%	44.5%	56.4%	44.4%	22.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	67.6%	44.5%	56.4%	44.4%	22.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	70.7%	44.5%	56.4%	44.4%	22.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	70.7%	44.5%	56.4%	44.4%	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	70.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	66.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	63.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗