KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

56%

44%

44%

23%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

ICONNO 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.25u · ICON −53.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	2.9%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	71.5%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	55.2%	—	—	37.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	78.7%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	57.7%	78.6%	0.7%	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	60.1%	64.3%	52.9%	—	47.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	43.2%	62.7%	57.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	15.4%	67.0%	44.4%	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	13.4%	67.8%	48.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	1.4%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	12.2%	57.8%	26.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	10.8%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	11.9%	66.1%	33.9%	—	25.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	19.6%	73.2%	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	15.3%	70.4%	35.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	17.0%	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	20.4%	69.7%	39.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	26.2%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	29.2%	68.9%	40.3%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	33.6%	68.5%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	31.0%	59.2%	59.2%	—	33.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	31.4%	69.6%	46.4%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	43.8%	73.4%	63.4%	11.2%	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	47.4%	78.1%	51.3%	—	24.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	18.2%	72.7%	46.0%	5.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	51.4%	65.0%	41.7%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	33.1%	68.2%	31.8%	14.6%	47.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	24.8%	71.5%	27.2%	—	42.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	25.0%	76.2%	22.6%	8.3%	25.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	48.4%	56.6%	18.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	70.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	67.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	66.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	63.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗