KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

35%

28%

26%

18%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

ICONNO 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.80u · ICON −60.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	2.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	65.9%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	48.7%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	50.7%	73.1%	0.4%	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	52.9%	57.3%	45.6%	—	40.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	35.8%	55.3%	50.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	11.1%	59.5%	36.7%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	62.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	9.3%	59.9%	40.1%	—	35.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	0.8%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	8.3%	49.1%	20.2%	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	7.1%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	7.9%	57.3%	25.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	13.7%	64.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	10.2%	61.5%	27.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	11.4%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	13.9%	60.2%	30.3%	—	22.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	18.3%	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	20.6%	58.7%	30.1%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	24.0%	57.8%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	21.5%	47.7%	47.7%	—	23.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	21.6%	58.4%	34.7%	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	32.0%	62.3%	51.2%	6.3%	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	34.9%	67.5%	38.5%	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	10.7%	60.6%	33.1%	2.4%	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	37.7%	51.4%	28.8%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	21.2%	54.3%	20.2%	7.8%	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	14.4%	57.5%	16.2%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	14.2%	62.4%	12.5%	3.7%	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	32.4%	40.2%	9.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	64%	69.0°F	1.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	69.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	64.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗