KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

35%

28%

26%

18%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

ICONNO 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.80u · ICON −60.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00	64.7%	50.8%	66.8%	57.5%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	64.7%	50.8%	66.8%	57.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	64.7%	50.8%	66.8%	57.5%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	64.7%	50.8%	66.8%	57.5%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:14+00:00	64.7%	50.8%	66.8%	57.5%	—
2026-10-12T04:01:53+00:00	63.3%	48.1%	46.8%	29.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	63.3%	48.1%	46.8%	29.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	63.3%	48.1%	56.4%	29.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	63.3%	48.1%	56.4%	29.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	63.3%	48.1%	56.4%	29.0%	68.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:55+00:00	61.9%	48.1%	56.4%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	61.9%	48.1%	56.4%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	61.9%	48.1%	56.4%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	61.9%	48.1%	56.4%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	61.9%	48.1%	56.4%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	61.9%	48.1%	55.2%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	61.9%	43.1%	55.2%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	61.9%	43.1%	55.2%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	66.1%	43.1%	55.2%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	66.1%	43.2%	55.2%	59.0%	71.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	62.8%	26.1%	45.7%	36.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	62.8%	26.1%	45.7%	36.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	62.8%	26.1%	45.7%	36.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	62.8%	26.1%	42.5%	36.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	62.8%	26.1%	42.5%	36.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	62.8%	26.1%	42.5%	36.7%	17.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	42.5%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	42.5%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	42.5%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	42.5%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	42.5%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	56.9%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	60.3%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	60.3%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	60.3%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	60.3%	26.1%	35.3%	28.1%	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	64%	69.0°F	1.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	69.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	66.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	64.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗