KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

67%

66%

64%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

EPSNO 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.05u · EPS −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	57.1%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	0.6%	68.8%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	48.6%	73.7%	0.3%	—	51.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	29.1%	70.3%	54.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	22.2%	78.9%	58.3%	—	46.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	24.2%	73.2%	54.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	23.8%	78.7%	55.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	2.2%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	23.4%	70.1%	47.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	27.1%	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	25.9%	71.8%	46.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.4%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	31.3%	60.6%	55.8%	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	31.7%	62.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	41.8%	63.1%	59.2%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	31.6%	65.5%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	35.1%	68.9%	52.2%	0.0%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	23.1%	73.3%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	28.9%	75.8%	52.3%	7.6%	43.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	28.3%	84.0%	48.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	55.0%	83.4%	52.5%	—	45.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	20.9%	78.1%	50.0%	—	42.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	29.5%	70.5%	48.7%	6.5%	42.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	19.1%	70.0%	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	16.3%	72.0%	45.7%	7.3%	44.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	31.1%	75.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	73.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	71.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	71.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	68.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗