KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

67%

66%

64%

42%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.0¢Risks 59.95u

EPSNO 40.0¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.05u · EPS −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	64.0%	45.6%	64.9%	66.5%	14.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	64.0%	46.6%	64.9%	66.5%	14.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	64.0%	46.6%	64.9%	66.5%	14.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	59.9%	46.6%	64.9%	66.5%	14.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	59.8%	46.6%	64.9%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	59.8%	46.6%	64.9%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	59.8%	42.1%	64.9%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	59.8%	42.1%	64.9%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	59.8%	42.1%	70.7%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	59.8%	42.1%	70.7%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	59.8%	42.1%	70.7%	66.5%	14.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	70.7%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	70.7%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	70.7%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	70.7%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	59.1%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	65.9%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	65.9%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	65.9%	42.1%	77.8%	64.2%	66.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	73.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	67%	73.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	71.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	71.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	68.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗