KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

94%

93%

83%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

ICONNO 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.83u · ICON −4.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	95.2%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	83.2%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	34.8%	62.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	83.4%	98.6%	67.7%	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	72.2%	99.3%	96.5%	—	83.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	84.0%	98.7%	97.1%	—	91.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	93.8%	94.1%	—	93.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	88.0%	99.7%	94.4%	—	94.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	71.9%	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	93.2%	99.4%	71.6%	—	93.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	72.9%	98.9%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	98.1%	99.6%	99.2%	—	95.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	97.8%	99.6%	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	98.9%	99.8%	99.4%	—	98.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.4%	98.2%	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.7%	99.9%	99.7%	1.2%	98.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	99.3%	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.7%	100.0%	99.5%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.8%	100.0%	4.5%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	100.0%	99.5%	13.4%	99.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	97%	68.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	67.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	66.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	73%	65.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗