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KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
EPS
97%
AIFS
94%
HRES
93%
ICON
83%
Consensus
93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 90.3¢Risks 45.17u
VS
ICONNO 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.83u · ICON −4.83u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.9% · 2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.0% · 2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 92.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 92.6% · 2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00IFS HRES: 92.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00IFS HRES: 92.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 92.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 92.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 92.6% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:0010-14 03:4510-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:0013.1%99.9%92.0%92.9%84.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:0013.1%99.9%92.0%92.9%84.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:0013.1%99.9%92.0%92.9%84.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:0013.1%99.9%92.0%92.9%84.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:0013.1%99.9%92.0%92.9%84.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:0023.7%99.9%92.0%92.9%83.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0023.7%99.9%92.0%92.9%83.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:0023.7%99.9%92.0%92.9%83.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:0023.7%99.9%92.0%92.9%83.3%
2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:0023.7%99.9%92.0%92.6%83.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:0023.7%97.3%97.6%92.6%83.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0023.7%97.3%97.6%92.6%83.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:0023.7%97.3%97.6%92.6%83.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:0093.9%97.3%97.6%92.6%83.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:0093.8%97.3%97.5%92.6%83.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%68.6°F4.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%68.2°F4.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
AIFS Single94%67.8°F5.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
IFS HRES93%69.0°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
ICON83%66.3°F7.1°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend73%65.0°F8.9°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%60.0°F5.8°F2026-10-14 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 60°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗