KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

95%

94%

94%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.9¢Risks 23.96u

EPSNO 4.1¢Risks 1.04u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.04u · EPS −1.04u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	85.1%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	62.2%	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	14.3%	35.5%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	60.4%	93.3%	40.3%	—	43.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	44.2%	95.8%	86.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	59.1%	93.0%	87.1%	—	72.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	73.2%	77.0%	77.6%	—	75.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	63.1%	96.9%	77.5%	—	76.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	39.0%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	73.1%	94.6%	37.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	38.5%	91.9%	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	87.6%	95.4%	93.0%	—	77.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	85.7%	95.8%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	90.6%	96.8%	93.8%	—	87.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.0%	93.0%	86.5%	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	95.3%	98.5%	96.0%	0.1%	87.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	92.4%	92.0%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	94.7%	99.5%	93.0%	—	93.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	96.5%	99.5%	0.2%	—	93.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	97.7%	99.4%	92.4%	1.1%	92.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	98.4%	99.5%	97.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	98.6%	99.8%	97.2%	98.7%	96.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.1%	99.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	70.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	71.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	70.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	94%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	68.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗