KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

95%

94%

94%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.9¢Risks 23.96u

EPSNO 4.1¢Risks 1.04u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.04u · EPS −1.04u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	10.6%	98.4%	78.4%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	10.6%	98.4%	78.4%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	10.6%	98.4%	78.4%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	8.5%	98.4%	78.3%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	8.5%	98.4%	78.3%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	78.3%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	78.3%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	8.5%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	42.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	72.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	72.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	72.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	64.1%	45.6%	72.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	72.7%	79.8%	72.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	72.7%	79.8%	72.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	6.3%	97.4%	72.7%	79.8%	72.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	3.3%	97.4%	72.7%	79.8%	72.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	3.3%	97.4%	72.7%	79.8%	72.7%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	3.3%	97.4%	72.7%	79.8%	72.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	85.5%	80.6%	90.4%	78.5%	75.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	85.5%	80.6%	91.8%	78.5%	75.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	85.5%	80.6%	91.8%	78.5%	75.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	85.5%	80.6%	91.8%	78.5%	75.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	83.3%	80.6%	91.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	83.3%	80.6%	91.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	83.3%	80.6%	91.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	83.3%	80.6%	91.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	83.3%	80.6%	91.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	83.3%	80.6%	92.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	83.3%	88.7%	92.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	83.3%	88.7%	92.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	81.2%	88.7%	92.8%	76.7%	83.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	81.2%	88.7%	92.8%	76.6%	83.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	81.2%	87.7%	92.8%	76.6%	83.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	91.2%	92.1%	83.3%	92.5%	91.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	91.2%	92.1%	94.1%	92.5%	91.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	91.2%	92.1%	94.1%	92.5%	91.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	91.2%	92.1%	94.1%	92.5%	91.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	96.2%	92.1%	94.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	96.2%	92.1%	94.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	96.2%	92.1%	94.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	96.2%	92.1%	94.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	96.2%	92.1%	94.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	96.2%	94.0%	98.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	96.2%	94.0%	98.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	96.2%	94.0%	98.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	96.6%	94.0%	98.1%	95.1%	93.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	96.6%	93.6%	98.1%	95.1%	93.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	70.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	71.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	70.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	94%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	68.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗