KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

76%

72%

69%

40%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

WN2NO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.80u · WN2 −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	65.9%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	36.6%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.0%	14.7%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	33.0%	78.6%	17.1%	—	19.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	18.9%	83.9%	63.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	29.6%	76.1%	64.2%	—	43.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	42.9%	47.6%	48.4%	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	30.8%	84.8%	46.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	12.8%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	39.6%	76.6%	11.8%	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	11.6%	69.0%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	59.1%	77.7%	71.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	54.7%	78.3%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	63.4%	81.0%	71.3%	—	56.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.0%	68.3%	54.0%	—	—	58.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	74.1%	87.2%	76.5%	0.0%	55.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.5%	63.5%	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	69.9%	93.0%	64.9%	—	65.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	75.1%	92.5%	0.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	79.3%	90.6%	60.4%	0.0%	60.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	82.5%	91.3%	76.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	82.6%	95.1%	74.4%	83.4%	69.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	85.7%	95.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	72.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	70.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	69.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	66.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗