KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

17%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.6¢Risks 8.28u

ICONNO 83.5¢Risks 41.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.73u · ICON −41.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:11+00:00	0.1%	21.9%	1.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.1%	21.9%	1.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.1%	21.9%	1.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.1%	21.9%	1.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.1%	21.9%	1.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	0.1%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	0.1%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	0.1%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	9.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	0.0%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	9.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	0.0%	11.9%	7.7%	3.2%	9.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	7.7%	3.2%	9.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	7.7%	3.2%	9.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	3.2%	3.2%	30.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	3.2%	3.2%	30.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	3.2%	3.2%	30.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	3.2%	3.2%	30.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	18.4%	12.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:25+00:00	0.0%	8.2%	5.4%	20.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	0.0%	8.1%	9.9%	20.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	0.0%	8.1%	9.9%	20.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	0.0%	8.1%	9.9%	20.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	10.0%	8.1%	9.9%	20.1%	12.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	10.7%	8.2%	10.3%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	10.7%	5.7%	10.3%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	10.7%	5.7%	10.3%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	10.7%	5.7%	10.3%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	10.7%	5.7%	9.9%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	10.7%	5.7%	9.9%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	10.7%	5.7%	9.9%	20.2%	12.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	17.7%	5.7%	9.9%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	17.7%	5.7%	9.9%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	17.7%	5.7%	9.9%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	17.7%	5.7%	9.9%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	17.7%	5.7%	9.9%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	17.7%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	17.7%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	17.7%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	14.7%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	16.8%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	16.8%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	16.3%	5.8%	16.8%	18.9%	19.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	10.6%	5.8%	16.8%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	10.6%	5.8%	16.8%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	10.6%	5.8%	16.8%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	10.6%	5.8%	16.8%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	10.6%	5.8%	16.8%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	10.6%	5.8%	11.2%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	10.6%	4.6%	11.2%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	10.6%	4.6%	11.2%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	9.2%	4.6%	11.2%	11.9%	18.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	9.2%	4.6%	11.2%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	11.2%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:14+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	11.2%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	12.6%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	12.6%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	12.6%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	12.6%	12.0%	19.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	11.4%	4.1%	12.6%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	11.4%	4.1%	12.6%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	11.4%	4.1%	12.6%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	11.4%	4.1%	12.6%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	11.4%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	11.3%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	11.3%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.3%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	12.5%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	13.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	9.2%	4.1%	10.7%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	9.2%	3.0%	10.8%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	9.2%	3.0%	10.8%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	9.2%	3.0%	10.8%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	9.2%	3.0%	10.8%	20.3%	9.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	11.5%	3.0%	10.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	10.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	10.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	10.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	11.5%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	9.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	18.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	18.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	18.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	9.8%	13.6%	18.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	9.8%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	13.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	14.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	14.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	14.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	14.7%	3.4%	2.3%	22.4%	18.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	21.3%	3.4%	8.1%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	21.3%	3.4%	8.1%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	21.3%	3.4%	8.1%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	21.3%	3.4%	8.1%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	21.3%	3.4%	8.1%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	21.3%	5.4%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	21.3%	5.4%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	21.3%	5.4%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	22.7%	5.4%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	22.7%	5.7%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	22.7%	6.6%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	22.7%	6.6%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	22.7%	6.6%	11.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	22.7%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	22.7%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	22.7%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	10.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	4.8%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	2.9%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	11.2%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	11.2%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	11.2%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	24.2%	6.6%	11.2%	21.0%	16.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	24.5%	6.6%	11.2%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	24.5%	6.6%	11.2%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	24.5%	6.6%	11.2%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	24.5%	6.6%	11.2%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	24.5%	6.6%	11.2%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	24.5%	11.0%	9.3%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	24.5%	11.0%	9.3%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	24.5%	11.0%	9.3%	15.3%	6.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	23.8%	11.9%	9.3%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	23.8%	11.9%	9.3%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	23.8%	12.7%	9.3%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	23.8%	12.7%	9.3%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	23.8%	12.7%	2.5%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	23.8%	12.7%	2.5%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	23.8%	12.7%	2.5%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	23.8%	12.7%	2.5%	15.3%	6.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	25.3%	12.7%	2.5%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	25.3%	12.7%	2.5%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	25.3%	12.7%	2.5%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	25.3%	12.7%	2.5%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00	26.9%	12.7%	0.6%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	26.9%	12.7%	5.3%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	26.9%	12.7%	5.3%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	26.9%	12.7%	5.3%	11.1%	10.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	26.3%	12.7%	5.3%	16.6%	6.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	26.3%	12.7%	5.3%	16.6%	6.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	26.3%	12.7%	5.3%	16.6%	6.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	26.3%	12.7%	5.3%	16.6%	6.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	26.3%	12.7%	5.3%	16.6%	6.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	26.3%	13.3%	9.6%	16.6%	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	70.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗