KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

17%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.6¢Risks 8.28u

ICONNO 83.5¢Risks 41.73u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.73u · ICON −41.73u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	6.9%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.3%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.7%	33.0%	1.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	38.5%	17.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	3.0%	26.4%	16.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.7%	7.2%	7.5%	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	2.5%	33.0%	6.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.4%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.6%	20.8%	0.3%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	14.0%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.3%	19.6%	14.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	8.6%	20.3%	12.6%	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	10.0%	4.9%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	12.3%	25.1%	13.9%	0.0%	4.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.8%	6.5%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	8.1%	33.1%	6.2%	—	6.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.7%	29.6%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.0%	23.3%	3.8%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.9%	22.5%	8.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.6%	29.8%	6.3%	11.2%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.5%	29.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	26%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	70.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗