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KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
WN2
91%
AIFS
85%
ICON
83%
EPS
72%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 83.2¢Risks 83.25u
VS
EPSNO 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +16.75u · EPS −16.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.4% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 95.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 99.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 80.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 98.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 98.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 99.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 99.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 100.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 89.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 81.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 95.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 84.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 91.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 98.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 99.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 29.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 98.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 90.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 84.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 91.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 99.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 61.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 66.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 80.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 68.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 80.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 83.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 90.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 95.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 97.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 99.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 100.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.1%———9.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0083.5%————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0083.2%———61.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0051.1%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0080.7%———66.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0069.4%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0048.9%———65.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0058.5%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0034.5%———80.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0058.5%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:005.9%———65.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0025.7%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0077.2%———64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0032.5%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:003.5%———68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0062.1%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0023.5%———36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.3%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.4%———35.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:001.7%—51.7%——
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:001.5%———16.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:004.7%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.4%—18.5%—28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.8%—8.0%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.7%———53.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0024.4%———31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.8%—2.1%——
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.4%—12.7%—39.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:006.1%—89.1%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.5%13.2%84.9%—65.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0054.8%—97.8%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0082.5%80.1%81.1%29.2%80.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0061.3%—19.9%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0075.7%93.8%15.6%98.9%83.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0083.5%—95.4%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0087.1%84.0%84.5%90.0%90.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0091.1%—91.8%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0092.8%98.9%96.9%84.6%95.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0092.4%—98.5%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0092.0%98.7%97.5%91.3%97.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0095.3%84.3%96.7%—4.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0096.9%99.8%99.0%99.2%99.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0096.1%99.3%99.8%—99.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0097.9%99.9%100.0%99.8%99.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0098.6%100.0%100.0%—99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0098.8%99.9%100.0%99.2%99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0098.5%99.9%100.0%—99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0098.5%100.0%100.0%99.6%99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0099.0%100.0%100.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0098.9%100.0%100.0%99.7%100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—100.0%100.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%69.9°F6.3°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 291%66.3°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
AIFS Single85%65.4°F5.6°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
ICON83%68.9°F9.9°F2026-10-14 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble72%64.5°F8.8°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend52%60.0°F9.4°F2026-10-14 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗