KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

91%

85%

83%

72%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 83.2¢Risks 83.25u

EPSNO 16.8¢Risks 16.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +16.75u · EPS −16.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	16.0%	74.6%	61.1%	43.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	16.0%	74.6%	61.1%	43.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	16.0%	74.6%	61.1%	43.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	81.3%	74.6%	61.1%	43.7%	41.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	81.3%	74.6%	61.0%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	81.3%	71.3%	61.0%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	81.3%	71.3%	61.0%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	81.3%	71.3%	61.0%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	81.3%	71.3%	80.5%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	81.3%	71.3%	80.5%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	81.3%	71.3%	80.5%	43.7%	42.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	95.5%	71.3%	80.5%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	95.5%	71.3%	80.5%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	95.5%	71.3%	80.5%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	95.5%	71.3%	80.5%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	95.5%	71.3%	80.5%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	95.5%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	95.5%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	95.5%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	85.3%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	85.3%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	85.3%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	85.3%	71.5%	91.3%	95.0%	82.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	69.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	66.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	65.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	83%	68.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	64.5°F	8.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	60.0°F	9.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗