KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

91%

83%

82%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 87.6¢Risks 43.80u

WN2NO 12.4¢Risks 6.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +6.20u · WN2 −6.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	40.6%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	11.7%	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	4.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	7.1%	—	27.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	81.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	7.2%	75.6%	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	95.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	68.9%	70.2%	18.4%	69.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	88.0%	8.4%	97.3%	73.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	90.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	73.0%	73.6%	81.6%	81.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	84.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	97.1%	92.8%	73.2%	89.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	96.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	96.4%	93.9%	82.7%	93.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	71.9%	92.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	99.1%	97.1%	97.6%	98.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	97.8%	99.1%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	99.4%	99.9%	99.3%	99.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	95.8%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	99.4%	99.8%	97.1%	99.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.7%	99.9%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	99.9%	100.0%	98.5%	99.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	99.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.9%	99.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	71.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	68.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	83%	66.4°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	65.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	64.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗