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KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
93%
ICON
92%
AIFS
91%
EPS
83%
WN2
82%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 87.6¢Risks 43.80u
VS
WN2NO 12.4¢Risks 6.20u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +6.20u · WN2 −6.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00AIFS Single: 86.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.7% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.1% · 2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.5% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00IFS HRES: 90.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 93.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00ICON: 77.2% · 2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00ICON: 77.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00ICON: 77.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00ICON: 77.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00ICON: 92.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:0010-15 04:4810-15 10:0710-15 15:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:0075.6%63.3%83.1%90.7%77.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:0075.6%63.3%70.5%90.7%77.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:0075.6%63.3%70.5%90.7%77.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:0075.6%63.3%70.5%90.7%77.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:0086.3%63.3%70.5%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:0086.3%63.3%70.5%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:0086.3%63.3%70.5%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:0086.3%63.3%70.5%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:0086.3%63.3%70.5%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:0086.3%63.3%82.1%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:0086.3%83.7%82.1%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:0086.3%83.7%82.1%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:0090.9%83.7%82.1%93.2%92.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0090.9%83.7%82.1%93.1%92.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:0090.9%82.7%82.1%93.1%92.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES93%71.3°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON92%71.5°F7.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single91%68.7°F5.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble83%66.4°F5.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 282%65.8°F4.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend63%64.0°F7.8°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗