KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

89%

87%

78%

68%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 79.4¢Risks 79.40u

WN2NO 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +20.60u · WN2 −20.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	14.0%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.7%	—	5.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	46.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	37.4%	—	17.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	73.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	28.6%	29.8%	2.5%	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	52.9%	0.7%	79.5%	31.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	57.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	29.6%	30.3%	40.2%	40.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	43.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	75.8%	60.3%	28.1%	52.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	70.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	70.7%	61.5%	37.7%	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	23.9%	55.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	85.4%	71.6%	74.5%	77.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	74.3%	84.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	87.1%	96.2%	85.6%	85.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	95.4%	96.0%	—	85.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	85.3%	92.5%	67.0%	88.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	89.0%	93.0%	—	87.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	93.9%	97.2%	73.2%	87.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	96.9%	97.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	96.7%	97.1%	72.7%	90.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	92.1%	93.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	91%	74.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	73.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	72.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	70.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	69.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗