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KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
91%
HRES
89%
AIFS
87%
EPS
78%
WN2
68%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 79.4¢Risks 79.40u
VS
WN2NO 20.6¢Risks 20.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +20.60u · WN2 −20.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00AIFS Single: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00AIFS Single: 87.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00IFS HRES: 80.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00IFS HRES: 89.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00ICON: 90.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00ICON: 91.2% · 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:0010-17 15:2510-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:0079.6%77.9%83.3%80.0%90.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:0079.6%77.9%83.3%80.0%90.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:0079.6%77.9%83.3%80.0%90.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:0079.6%77.9%76.5%80.0%90.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:0079.6%77.9%76.5%80.0%90.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:0079.6%77.9%76.5%80.0%90.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:0085.2%77.9%76.5%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:0085.2%77.9%76.5%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:0085.2%77.9%76.5%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:0085.2%77.9%76.5%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:0085.2%77.9%76.5%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:0085.2%77.9%67.6%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:0085.2%77.9%67.6%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:0085.2%77.9%67.6%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:0087.1%77.9%67.6%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:0087.1%77.9%67.6%89.3%91.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:0087.1%77.9%67.6%89.3%91.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON91%74.1°F4.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES89%73.7°F5.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single87%72.7°F4.6°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble78%70.8°F4.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 268%69.2°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend46%67.0°F5.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗