KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

65%

46%

41%

34%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

WN2NO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.10u · WN2 −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	45.3%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	45.3%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	25.7%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	25.7%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	25.7%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	25.7%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	25.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	25.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	25.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	25.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	44.4%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	12.4%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	29.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	29.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	46.3%	47.9%	29.7%	64.8%	66.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	41.2%	47.9%	29.7%	66.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	41.2%	47.9%	29.7%	66.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	41.2%	47.9%	29.7%	66.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	41.2%	47.9%	29.7%	66.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	41.2%	47.9%	29.7%	66.1%	65.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	41.2%	46.2%	33.7%	66.1%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	66%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	73.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	72.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗