KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

65%

46%

41%

34%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

WN2NO 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.10u · WN2 −50.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	0.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	17.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	12.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	40.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	7.4%	7.9%	0.2%	7.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	19.9%	0.0%	46.4%	8.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	6.8%	7.0%	11.4%	11.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	12.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	38.2%	23.0%	5.7%	17.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	31.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	30.8%	22.5%	8.7%	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	3.8%	17.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	48.2%	29.9%	33.0%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	31.8%	45.5%	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	49.1%	73.4%	46.3%	46.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	69.1%	71.6%	—	45.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	43.2%	58.7%	21.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	49.0%	58.9%	—	46.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	60.2%	73.2%	25.1%	44.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	70.2%	71.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	67.9%	69.9%	22.1%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	50.0%	54.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	66%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	73.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	72.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	41%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	71.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗