KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

40%

37%

36%

34%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

WN2NO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.75u · WN2 −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	5.5%	15.6%	2.6%	0.9%	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	5.5%	15.6%	2.6%	0.9%	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	5.5%	15.6%	2.6%	0.9%	5.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	21.2%	15.6%	2.6%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	21.2%	15.6%	2.6%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	21.2%	15.6%	2.6%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	21.2%	15.6%	2.6%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	21.2%	15.6%	2.6%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	21.2%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	21.2%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	21.2%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	7.5%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	3.2%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	3.2%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	7.5%	15.3%	3.2%	28.5%	32.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	12.9%	15.3%	3.2%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	12.9%	15.3%	3.2%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	12.9%	15.3%	3.2%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	12.9%	15.3%	3.2%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	12.9%	15.3%	3.2%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	12.9%	15.3%	5.0%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	12.9%	9.2%	5.0%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	12.9%	9.2%	5.0%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	18.7%	9.2%	5.0%	36.9%	38.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	18.7%	9.2%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	18.7%	8.6%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	18.7%	8.6%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	18.7%	8.6%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	18.7%	8.6%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	18.7%	8.6%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	18.7%	8.6%	5.0%	36.9%	38.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	5.0%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	5.0%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	5.0%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	5.0%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	22.9%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	12.8%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	28.3%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	23.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	28.6%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	28.6%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	28.6%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	28.6%	8.6%	8.9%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	28.6%	9.1%	11.7%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	28.6%	9.1%	11.7%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	28.6%	9.1%	11.7%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	28.6%	9.1%	11.7%	44.6%	51.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	27.3%	9.1%	11.7%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	27.3%	9.9%	11.7%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	27.3%	9.9%	11.7%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	27.3%	9.9%	11.7%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	27.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	27.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	27.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	51.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	45.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	45.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	45.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	12.6%	39.8%	45.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	12.6%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	25.3%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	7.9%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	19.7%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	19.7%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	32.1%	9.9%	19.7%	35.8%	45.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	36.3%	9.9%	19.7%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	36.3%	9.9%	19.7%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	36.3%	9.9%	19.7%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	36.3%	9.9%	19.7%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	36.3%	9.9%	19.7%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	36.3%	24.8%	25.9%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	36.3%	24.8%	25.9%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	36.3%	24.8%	25.9%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	31.5%	24.8%	25.9%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	31.6%	25.0%	26.0%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:12+00:00	31.6%	26.5%	26.0%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	31.6%	26.5%	26.0%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	31.6%	26.5%	26.0%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	31.6%	26.5%	18.8%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	31.6%	26.5%	18.8%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	31.6%	26.5%	18.8%	35.9%	54.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	18.8%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	18.8%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	18.8%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	18.8%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	18.8%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	39.7%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	12.4%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	30.5%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	30.5%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	30.5%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	43.1%	26.5%	30.5%	51.6%	54.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	41.7%	26.5%	30.5%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	41.7%	26.5%	30.5%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	41.7%	26.5%	30.5%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	41.7%	26.5%	30.5%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	41.7%	26.5%	30.5%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	41.7%	35.5%	33.9%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	41.7%	35.5%	33.9%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	41.7%	35.5%	33.9%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	37.2%	36.0%	33.9%	60.6%	40.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	37.2%	36.0%	33.9%	60.6%	40.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	72.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	72.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	72.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 17:28 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗