KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

40%

37%

36%

34%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

WN2NO 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +52.75u · WN2 −52.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	13.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	9.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	33.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	5.2%	5.6%	0.1%	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	15.2%	0.0%	39.2%	5.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	17.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	4.6%	4.8%	8.1%	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	8.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	30.9%	17.4%	3.8%	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	24.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	23.8%	16.8%	5.8%	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	2.3%	12.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	39.6%	22.8%	25.5%	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	24.2%	36.8%	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	40.0%	65.3%	37.3%	37.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	60.3%	63.0%	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	33.9%	49.0%	15.3%	40.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	39.1%	49.0%	—	36.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	50.0%	64.1%	17.6%	34.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	60.5%	61.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	57.6%	59.7%	14.9%	36.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	38.9%	43.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	74.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	40%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	72.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	72.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	72.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 17:28 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗