KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

90%

65%

63%

54%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.2¢Risks 74.25u

ICONNO 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +25.75u · ICON −25.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	86.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	89.9%	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	88.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	87.0%	—	57.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	6.4%	7.0%	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	15.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	25.7%	9.9%	11.9%	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	40.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	93.8%	98.9%	53.6%	69.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	93.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	94.2%	27.7%	50.0%	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	90.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	97.0%	99.6%	98.9%	96.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	99.7%	—	93.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	99.8%	99.7%	76.2%	95.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	92.5%	99.4%	—	97.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	99.6%	99.8%	85.9%	92.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	99.7%	99.9%	—	96.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	99.9%	99.2%	99.2%	89.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	99.9%	99.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	99.9%	99.7%	97.6%	97.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.8%	99.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	72.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	68.7°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	63.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	63%	64.8°F	10.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	54%	62.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	62.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗