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KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
95%
AIFS
90%
WN2
65%
EPS
63%
ICON
54%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 74.2¢Risks 74.25u
VS
ICONNO 25.8¢Risks 25.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +25.75u · ICON −25.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 75.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00AIFS Single: 81.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00AIFS Single: 81.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS HRES: 33.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00IFS HRES: 94.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00ICON: 53.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:0064.6%54.1%54.0%32.9%32.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:0064.6%63.2%54.0%32.9%32.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:0064.6%63.2%54.0%32.9%32.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:0075.6%63.2%54.0%32.9%32.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0075.3%63.2%53.9%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:0075.3%62.8%53.9%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:0075.3%62.8%53.9%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:0075.3%62.8%73.6%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:0075.3%62.8%73.6%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:0075.3%62.8%73.6%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:0075.3%62.8%73.6%33.1%32.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:0081.5%62.8%73.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:0081.5%62.8%73.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:0081.5%62.8%73.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:0081.5%62.8%73.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:0081.5%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:0081.4%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:0081.4%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:0089.6%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:0089.6%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:0089.6%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0089.6%62.8%64.6%94.9%53.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES95%72.0°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single90%68.7°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 265%63.4°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble63%64.8°F10.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON54%62.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend52%62.0°F8.8°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗