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KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
ICON
98%
EPS
97%
HRES
95%
AIFS
84%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 90.9¢Risks 45.45u
VS
AIFSNO 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.55u · AIFS −4.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 79.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 78.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 86.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 71.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 95.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 98.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 98.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 98.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 71.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 94.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 77.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 70.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 94.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 98.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 93.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 96.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 92.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 26.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 22.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 93.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 45.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 57.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 45.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 74.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 81.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 70.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 80.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-13 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.1%———0.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0026.1%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0025.7%———37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0046.3%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0017.2%———46.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0045.2%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:006.4%———40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0020.8%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0052.7%———32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0026.1%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.0%———45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0022.4%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.1%———13.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0011.0%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.1%———17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.3%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.2%———9.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.2%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.1%———9.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.8%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.2%———11.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.0%———7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.4%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.3%———6.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.9%—68.4%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.7%—74.1%—16.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:004.0%—71.3%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0023.1%—68.2%—31.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:005.3%—4.5%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0014.7%1.4%1.6%—23.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0022.9%—4.5%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0029.8%8.7%2.3%3.0%26.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0042.9%—16.6%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0040.6%79.0%94.1%26.0%40.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0046.3%—77.3%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0046.2%78.9%8.7%22.2%37.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0046.9%—70.8%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0054.8%86.0%96.6%93.1%84.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0062.8%—97.3%—74.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0059.1%97.5%97.3%45.0%81.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0049.1%71.9%94.8%—85.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0048.2%95.9%97.5%57.8%70.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0053.6%97.1%98.8%—80.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0044.5%98.4%93.4%93.0%63.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0030.9%98.9%97.1%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0043.2%98.0%96.5%84.1%85.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—96.8%92.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%73.2°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON98%75.1°F4.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%72.5°F3.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES95%73.6°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%70.0°F4.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
National Blend67%68.0°F5.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗