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KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
ICON
98%
EPS
97%
HRES
95%
AIFS
84%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 90.9¢Risks 45.45u
VS
AIFSNO 9.1¢Risks 4.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.55u · AIFS −4.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.4% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 95.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.1% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 91.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:00IFS HRES: 91.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 91.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 91.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 91.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 97.5% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:33+00:0079.6%93.8%87.9%91.6%97.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0079.6%93.8%95.8%91.6%97.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0079.6%93.8%95.8%91.6%97.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0079.6%93.8%95.8%91.6%97.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0079.6%93.8%95.8%91.6%97.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:0080.2%93.8%95.8%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0080.2%93.8%95.8%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0080.2%93.8%95.8%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0080.2%93.8%95.8%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0080.2%93.8%95.8%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:0080.2%97.4%98.1%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:0080.2%97.4%98.1%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0080.2%97.4%98.1%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0083.7%97.4%98.1%94.7%97.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0083.7%97.4%98.1%94.7%97.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%73.2°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON98%75.1°F4.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%72.5°F3.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES95%73.6°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%70.0°F4.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
National Blend67%68.0°F5.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗