KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

55%

40%

40%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.8¢Risks 37.75u

AIFSNO 62.3¢Risks 62.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.25u · AIFS −62.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	22.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	27.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	23.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	20.2%	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	25.4%	53.6%	1.7%	4.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	22.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	23.4%	0.2%	1.1%	3.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	15.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	30.1%	58.7%	45.2%	27.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	61.3%	—	16.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	61.5%	59.9%	3.6%	21.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	12.8%	46.6%	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	49.1%	57.8%	5.9%	11.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	53.6%	67.4%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	61.8%	36.4%	35.6%	6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	65.7%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	53.9%	44.2%	17.1%	18.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	44.0%	27.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	72.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 12:24 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗