KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

55%

40%

40%

15%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.8¢Risks 37.75u

AIFSNO 62.3¢Risks 62.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.25u · AIFS −62.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	3.9%	20.7%	1.1%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	3.9%	20.7%	1.1%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	7.5%	20.7%	1.1%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	7.8%	20.7%	1.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	7.8%	19.5%	1.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	7.8%	19.5%	1.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	7.8%	19.5%	4.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	7.8%	19.5%	4.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	7.8%	19.5%	4.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	7.8%	19.5%	4.2%	1.0%	4.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	4.2%	40.7%	13.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	4.2%	40.7%	13.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	4.2%	40.7%	13.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	4.2%	40.7%	13.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	2.3%	40.7%	13.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	11.3%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.3%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	20.0%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	13.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	2.2%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	17.2%	17.2%	1.7%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	17.2%	17.2%	1.7%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	17.2%	17.2%	1.7%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	17.2%	17.2%	1.7%	40.8%	50.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	21.3%	17.2%	1.7%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	21.3%	17.7%	1.7%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	1.7%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	1.7%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	50.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	9.4%	49.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	7.6%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	21.3%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	5.4%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	20.2%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	20.2%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	21.9%	17.6%	20.2%	7.1%	49.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	24.7%	17.6%	20.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	24.7%	17.6%	20.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	24.7%	17.6%	20.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	24.7%	17.6%	20.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	24.7%	17.6%	20.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	24.7%	31.7%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	24.7%	31.7%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	24.7%	31.7%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	32.1%	31.7%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	32.1%	31.7%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:12+00:00	32.1%	33.5%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	32.1%	33.5%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	32.1%	33.5%	43.2%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	32.1%	33.5%	25.6%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	32.1%	33.5%	25.6%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	32.1%	33.5%	25.6%	51.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	28.6%	33.5%	25.6%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	28.6%	33.5%	25.6%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	28.6%	33.5%	25.6%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	28.6%	33.5%	25.6%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	28.6%	33.5%	25.6%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	28.6%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	28.6%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	28.6%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:34+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	21.8%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	41.3%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	41.3%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	41.3%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	21.5%	33.9%	41.3%	50.0%	74.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	18.6%	33.9%	41.3%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	18.6%	33.9%	41.3%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	18.6%	33.9%	41.3%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	18.6%	33.9%	41.3%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	18.6%	33.9%	41.3%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	18.6%	39.1%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	18.6%	39.1%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	18.6%	39.1%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	22.3%	39.1%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	22.3%	39.1%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00	22.3%	42.5%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	22.3%	42.5%	46.8%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	22.3%	42.5%	33.4%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	22.3%	42.5%	33.4%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	22.3%	42.5%	33.4%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	22.3%	42.5%	33.4%	50.8%	62.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	33.4%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	33.4%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	33.4%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	33.4%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	16.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	9.0%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	14.8%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	14.8%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	9.9%	42.5%	14.8%	8.1%	73.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	14.6%	42.5%	14.8%	55.4%	60.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	14.6%	42.5%	14.8%	55.4%	60.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	14.6%	42.5%	14.8%	55.4%	60.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	14.6%	42.5%	14.8%	55.4%	60.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	14.6%	42.5%	14.8%	55.4%	60.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	14.6%	40.4%	39.5%	55.4%	60.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	14.6%	40.4%	39.5%	55.4%	60.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	74.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	74.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	72.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	68.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 15 · 12:24 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗