KSLC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

95%

94%

92%

59%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

HRESNO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.95u · HRES −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	69.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	70.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	64.3%	—	65.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	31.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	17.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	52.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	9.6%	—	65.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	49.3%	49.3%	—	66.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	68.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	81.6%	74.3%	45.8%	60.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	58.7%	59.4%	82.0%	84.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	68.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	90.7%	54.6%	69.1%	80.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	43.0%	—	62.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	98.2%	67.7%	64.1%	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	81.6%	—	63.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	96.9%	65.5%	85.2%	50.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.7%	84.8%	37.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	86.9%	24.1%	72.4%	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	94.5%	90.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	60.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	62.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	68.5°F	9.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	61.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	55.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	53.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗