KSLC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

95%

94%

92%

59%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.0¢Risks 77.05u

HRESNO 23.0¢Risks 22.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.95u · HRES −22.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	33.2%	86.3%	41.5%	75.7%	83.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	33.2%	86.3%	75.4%	75.7%	83.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	33.2%	86.3%	75.4%	75.7%	83.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	33.2%	86.3%	75.4%	75.7%	83.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	87.8%	86.3%	75.4%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	87.8%	86.3%	75.4%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	87.8%	86.3%	75.4%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	87.8%	86.3%	75.4%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	87.8%	86.3%	75.4%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	87.8%	98.8%	94.8%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	87.8%	98.8%	94.8%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	87.8%	98.8%	94.8%	88.1%	75.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	74.1%	98.8%	94.8%	87.8%	75.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	74.1%	98.7%	94.8%	88.1%	75.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:34+00:00	74.7%	99.0%	61.8%	62.5%	93.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	74.7%	99.0%	87.1%	62.5%	93.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	74.7%	99.0%	87.1%	62.5%	93.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	74.7%	99.0%	87.1%	62.5%	93.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	74.7%	99.0%	87.1%	62.5%	93.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	84.9%	99.0%	87.1%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	84.9%	99.0%	87.1%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	84.9%	99.0%	87.1%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	84.9%	99.0%	87.1%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	84.9%	99.0%	87.1%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	84.9%	90.9%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00	84.9%	90.9%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	84.9%	90.9%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	92.1%	90.4%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	92.1%	90.4%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:36+00:00	92.1%	91.8%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	92.1%	91.8%	88.8%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	92.1%	91.8%	83.5%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	92.1%	91.8%	83.5%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	92.1%	91.8%	83.5%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	92.1%	91.8%	83.5%	61.5%	98.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	83.5%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	83.5%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	83.5%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	83.5%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	89.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	53.9%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	89.7%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	89.7%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	89.7%	54.1%	97.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00	95.1%	91.8%	89.7%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	95.1%	91.8%	89.7%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	95.1%	91.8%	89.7%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	95.1%	91.8%	89.7%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	95.1%	91.8%	89.7%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	95.1%	94.1%	95.4%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	95.1%	94.1%	95.4%	58.7%	91.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	95.1%	94.1%	95.4%	58.7%	91.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	60.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	62.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	68.5°F	9.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	61.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	55.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	53.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 55°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗