KSLC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

81%

71%

34%

27%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u

AIFSNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.55u · AIFS −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	65.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	58.7%	—	59.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	46.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	7.1%	—	59.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	19.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	42.6%	42.6%	—	60.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	62.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	76.5%	68.3%	38.9%	53.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	43.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	51.5%	52.2%	76.8%	79.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	61.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	87.1%	46.9%	62.0%	74.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	35.5%	—	54.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	97.1%	60.3%	56.4%	50.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	75.7%	—	55.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	95.1%	57.5%	79.9%	42.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	79.2%	29.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	81.6%	17.8%	64.6%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	91.5%	85.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	64.5°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	64.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	59.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	56.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	53.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	52.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 56°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗