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KSLC / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
ICON
81%
HRES
71%
WN2
34%
AIFS
27%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.45u
VS
AIFSNO 44.5¢Risks 44.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.55u · AIFS −44.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 67.4% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00ICON: 80.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0010-16 14:1910-16 21:0710-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:0067.4%82.5%72.2%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:0067.4%83.6%72.2%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:0067.4%83.8%72.2%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:0067.4%83.8%72.2%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:0067.4%83.8%61.6%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:0067.4%83.8%61.6%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:0067.4%83.8%61.6%43.2%63.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:0047.2%83.8%61.6%43.2%80.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:0047.2%83.8%61.6%43.2%80.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:0047.2%83.8%61.6%43.2%80.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:0047.2%83.8%61.6%43.2%80.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:0047.2%83.8%61.6%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:0047.2%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:0047.2%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:0047.2%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:0027.1%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:0027.1%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:0027.1%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0027.1%83.8%34.0%70.6%80.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble84%64.5°F9.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON81%64.2°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES71%59.0°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend54%56.0°F5.5°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%53.4°F5.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single27%52.0°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 56°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗