KSLC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

77%

67%

21%

19%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

WN2NO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.00u · WN2 −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	35.2%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	29.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	1.5%	47.3%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	88.5%	17.5%	26.3%	—	59.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	73.4%	50.0%	23.7%	65.7%	48.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	18.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	67.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	65.9°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	54.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	57.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗