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KSLC / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
87%
HRES
77%
EPS
67%
ICON
21%
WN2
19%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u
VS
WN2NO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.00u · WN2 −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00AIFS Single: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 18.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 77.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:0087.4%67.1%18.6%77.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0087.4%67.1%18.6%77.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0087.4%67.1%18.6%77.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0087.4%67.1%18.6%77.2%20.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0087.4%67.1%18.6%77.2%20.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single87%69.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES77%67.3°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble67%65.9°F7.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend53%63.0°F7.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON21%54.3°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 219%57.6°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261026-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗