KSMF / Thu Sep 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOSep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

71%

70%

66%

17%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

ICONNO 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.50u · ICON −47.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	92.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	94.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	6.1%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	95.7%	—	—	94.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	70.5%	—	—	95.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	99.7%	—	—	94.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	15.8%	99.9%	0.6%	65.7%	95.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	99.2%	99.8%	98.9%	—	98.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	99.8%	96.5%	88.2%	—	96.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	20.6%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.1%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	100.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	99.5%	100.0%	99.2%	—	99.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	28.1%	100.0%	—	—	98.1%
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	97.7%	51.7%	—	92.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	0.0%	90.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	14.9%	—	73.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	0.0%	81.0%	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	0.8%	76.8%	14.2%	—	64.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	69.2%	68.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	0.2%	72.4%	37.8%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	39.5%	82.4%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	37.1%	74.5%	10.9%	0.0%	50.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	51.1%	78.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	40.8%	73.0%	16.0%	—	45.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	56.0%	64.1%	13.2%	—	47.6%
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	34.2%	74.4%	25.6%	33.1%	42.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	32.5%	65.1%	22.8%	—	48.7%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	25.1%	58.0%	14.9%	24.0%	42.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	16.4%	56.9%	13.2%	—	36.3%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	16.3%	58.6%	9.5%	23.4%	25.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	17.2%	57.5%	19.2%	—	33.8%
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	23.8%	48.4%	18.1%	27.6%	37.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	16.0%	16.0%	15.0%	—	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	83.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.7762
AIFS Single	71%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-16 18:00	0.5069
IFS Ensemble	70%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	0.4858
IFS HRES	66%	81.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.4422
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	0.3181
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-16 06:00	0.1927
ICON	17%	76.1°F	3.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	0.0286

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 16 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 80°F · Thu Sep 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗