KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

95%

94%

79%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.5¢Risks 44.23u

ICONNO 11.5¢Risks 5.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.77u · ICON −5.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	4.3%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	91.0%	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	90.4%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	94.4%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	91.5%	72.0%	0.3%	—	75.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	78.5%	63.6%	79.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	86.7%	70.4%	77.2%	—	78.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	81.1%	49.2%	69.2%	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	91.0%	67.8%	92.9%	—	72.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	2.2%	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	70.1%	76.6%	93.8%	—	84.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	78.5%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	83.4%	81.6%	96.8%	—	92.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	91.9%	73.2%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	93.2%	75.3%	97.9%	—	90.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	94.8%	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	90.1%	78.8%	98.8%	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	94.8%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	92.7%	65.9%	97.1%	—	89.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.2%	94.3%	73.3%	0.0%	—	87.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	93.5%	74.0%	96.2%	—	86.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	92.6%	73.7%	91.3%	—	84.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	92.0%	75.4%	95.4%	70.2%	80.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	93.2%	81.8%	96.3%	—	86.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	91.6%	82.7%	96.5%	74.9%	93.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	82.7%	90.2%	96.8%	—	93.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	88.5%	94.5%	97.1%	85.4%	94.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	86.4%	88.0%	96.6%	97.6%	—	93.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	83.9%	97.1%	93.9%	89.8%	89.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	90.1%	97.7%	92.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	96%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0014
IFS Ensemble	95%	87.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0021
AIFS Single	94%	87.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0030
ICON	79%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0454
National Blend	75%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗