KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

95%

94%

79%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.5¢Risks 44.23u

ICONNO 11.5¢Risks 5.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.77u · ICON −5.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:32+00:00	70.1%	95.6%	80.9%	75.4%	90.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	70.1%	95.6%	69.3%	75.4%	90.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	70.1%	95.6%	69.3%	75.4%	90.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	70.1%	95.6%	69.3%	75.4%	90.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	70.1%	95.6%	69.3%	75.4%	90.7%
2026-10-13T08:04:20+00:00	69.5%	95.6%	69.3%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	69.5%	95.6%	69.3%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	69.5%	95.6%	69.3%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	69.5%	95.6%	69.3%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	69.5%	98.4%	84.8%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	69.5%	98.4%	84.8%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	69.5%	98.4%	84.8%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	69.5%	98.4%	84.8%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	76.0%	98.4%	84.7%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	76.0%	98.5%	84.7%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:55+00:00	76.0%	98.5%	84.7%	60.9%	88.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	76.0%	98.5%	84.7%	60.8%	88.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	76.0%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	88.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	76.0%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	88.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	76.0%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	88.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	93.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	93.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	93.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	87.4%	60.8%	93.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	87.4%	60.1%	93.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	73.6%	60.3%	93.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	73.6%	60.3%	93.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	68.6%	98.5%	73.6%	60.3%	93.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	80.2%	98.5%	73.6%	60.3%	93.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	80.2%	98.5%	73.6%	60.3%	93.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	93.0%	98.3%	92.7%	89.6%	80.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	93.0%	98.3%	92.7%	89.6%	80.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	93.0%	98.3%	92.7%	89.6%	80.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	93.0%	98.3%	96.0%	89.6%	80.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	93.0%	98.3%	96.0%	89.6%	80.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	93.0%	98.3%	96.0%	89.6%	80.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	91.5%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	89.2%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	89.2%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	89.2%	98.3%	96.0%	95.9%	88.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:49+00:00	86.6%	96.5%	96.9%	92.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	86.6%	96.5%	96.9%	92.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	86.6%	96.5%	96.9%	92.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	86.6%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	86.6%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	86.6%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	92.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	91.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	91.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	91.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	94.7%	92.5%	91.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	94.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	81.8%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	80.5%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	80.5%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	80.5%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	80.5%	96.5%	90.7%	89.3%	91.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	94.5%	95.4%	97.9%	96.2%	78.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	94.5%	95.4%	98.2%	96.2%	78.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	94.5%	95.4%	98.2%	96.2%	78.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	94.5%	95.4%	98.2%	96.2%	78.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	94.5%	95.4%	98.2%	96.2%	78.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	87.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	96%	88.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0014
IFS Ensemble	95%	87.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0021
AIFS Single	94%	87.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0030
ICON	79%	84.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0454
National Blend	75%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗