KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

63%

50%

41%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u

HRESNO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.00u · HRES −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	72.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	80.7%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	79.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	86.1%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	80.1%	52.1%	0.1%	—	56.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	59.4%	42.0%	60.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	70.4%	48.5%	56.8%	—	58.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	61.0%	26.8%	46.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	76.2%	43.4%	79.9%	—	48.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	0.4%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	44.8%	52.6%	81.0%	—	64.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	54.5%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	60.9%	58.2%	87.6%	—	77.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	75.4%	46.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	77.5%	48.0%	90.2%	—	71.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	81.0%	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	69.7%	51.0%	93.3%	—	54.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	79.5%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	73.6%	34.1%	85.7%	—	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	76.9%	41.0%	0.0%	—	62.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	74.0%	40.8%	81.7%	—	59.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	70.7%	39.3%	67.5%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	68.0%	40.1%	77.3%	34.2%	46.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	69.8%	47.4%	79.1%	—	55.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.4%	47.3%	79.0%	36.8%	69.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	45.8%	59.7%	78.9%	—	67.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	54.3%	69.5%	78.8%	48.5%	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	51.5%	75.2%	79.8%	—	64.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	42.1%	76.2%	63.9%	53.2%	53.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	51.6%	77.2%	56.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	65%	86.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.1197
AIFS Single	63%	86.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1391
National Blend	55%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2070
WeatherNext 2	50%	84.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.2500
IFS HRES	41%	83.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3528

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 85°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗