WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSMF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
65%
AIFS
63%
WN2
50%
HRES
41%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 53.0¢Risks 53.00u
VS
HRESNO 47.0¢Risks 47.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.00u · HRES −47.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:42+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 62.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T07:32:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-11T10:34:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:22+00:00IFS HRES: 40.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:42+00:00IFS HRES: 40.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00IFS HRES: 40.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 40.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 40.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:22+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:34:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:42+00:0062.7%65.4%50.0%40.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:0062.7%65.4%50.0%40.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:0062.7%65.4%50.0%40.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:0062.7%65.4%50.0%40.6%
2026-10-11T10:34:22+00:0062.7%65.4%50.0%40.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble65%86.6°F5.3°F2026-10-10 00:000.1197
AIFS Single63%86.3°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.1391
National Blend55%85.0°F4.4°F2026-10-11 00:000.2070
WeatherNext 250%84.5°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.2500
IFS HRES41%83.0°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.3528

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261018-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 85°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗