KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

53%

41%

33%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

WN2NO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.75u · WN2 −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	20.2%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	0.2%	13.9%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	72.0%	12.6%	0.4%	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	17.5%	14.4%	0.4%	—	23.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	55.3%	16.4%	12.2%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	20.6%	52.4%	33.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	2.3%	16.8%	25.8%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.5%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	11.3%	8.0%	24.8%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	5.0%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	4.1%	16.6%	9.4%	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	0.5%	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	17.1%	4.2%	4.9%	—	6.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.6%	8.4%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	4.9%	6.7%	3.5%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	1.9%	6.8%	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.9%	8.1%	3.1%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.6%	16.1%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	2.9%	15.3%	12.7%	6.8%	3.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	0.1%	13.2%	6.6%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	1.8%	20.8%	3.5%	—	2.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.6%	15.8%	1.9%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.9%	13.4%	1.7%	7.9%	2.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.5%	18.2%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	15.4%	0.4%	4.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	85.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	77.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	76.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	75.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗