KSMF / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

53%

41%

33%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

WN2NO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.75u · WN2 −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	56.4%	87.1%	25.9%	53.1%	10.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	56.4%	84.6%	25.9%	53.1%	10.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	56.4%	84.6%	25.9%	53.1%	10.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	45.0%	84.6%	25.9%	53.1%	10.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	45.0%	84.6%	26.0%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:47+00:00	45.0%	84.6%	26.0%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	45.0%	83.6%	26.0%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	45.0%	83.6%	21.6%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	45.0%	83.6%	21.6%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	45.0%	83.6%	21.6%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	45.0%	83.6%	21.6%	53.1%	10.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	21.6%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	21.6%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	21.6%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	21.6%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	37.4%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	52.8%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	52.8%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	52.8%	83.6%	32.9%	40.6%	78.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	84%	82.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	85.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	77.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	76.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	75.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗