KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

93%

90%

68%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.8¢Risks 83.75u

ICONNO 16.2¢Risks 16.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.25u · ICON −16.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	43.7%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.0%	9.6%	62.6%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	59.7%	32.3%	0.4%	—	78.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	99.5%	93.4%	65.7%	—	92.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	71.7%	83.1%	25.8%	—	97.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	10.8%	23.0%	42.1%	—	82.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.5%	74.9%	17.8%	40.9%	—	66.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	4.3%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	51.7%	40.5%	67.0%	—	73.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	84.5%	50.9%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	91.0%	54.6%	80.4%	—	60.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	32.6%	44.3%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	59.6%	56.8%	62.4%	—	79.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	77.4%	35.3%	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	97.2%	60.2%	83.0%	0.0%	82.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	95.5%	62.5%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	88.1%	86.9%	94.1%	—	75.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	76.0%	92.1%	0.0%	—	81.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	64.8%	93.9%	59.2%	0.0%	61.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	72.7%	84.8%	29.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	81.8%	85.6%	33.1%	48.8%	90.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	74.1%	87.2%	85.0%	—	90.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	83.5%	93.9%	89.3%	59.3%	90.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	43.1%	83.6%	71.2%	—	95.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	61.4%	79.8%	65.5%	98.4%	94.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	93.0%	74.0%	—	96.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	74.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗