KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

93%

90%

68%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.8¢Risks 83.75u

ICONNO 16.2¢Risks 16.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.25u · ICON −16.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	90.1%	80.4%	96.5%	24.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	90.1%	80.4%	96.5%	24.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	90.1%	80.4%	89.9%	24.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	90.1%	80.4%	89.9%	24.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	90.1%	80.4%	89.9%	24.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	90.1%	80.4%	89.9%	24.4%	66.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	89.9%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	89.9%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	89.9%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	89.9%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	94.4%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	95.6%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	95.6%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	95.6%	80.4%	91.8%	84.3%	97.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	94.8%	90.3%	99.6%	92.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	94.8%	90.3%	99.6%	92.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	94.8%	90.3%	99.6%	92.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	94.8%	90.3%	99.5%	92.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	94.8%	90.3%	99.5%	92.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	94.8%	90.3%	99.5%	92.7%	68.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.5%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.5%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.5%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.5%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.5%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.1%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.1%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.1%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.1%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.1%	96.5%	68.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	93.3%	90.3%	99.1%	96.5%	68.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	74.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	68%	70.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗