KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

90%

78%

17%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.15u · ICON −43.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	97.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	98.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	97.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	93.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	31.8%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	3.5%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	5.0%	49.3%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	45.8%	20.9%	0.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	98.7%	87.2%	51.5%	—	85.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	57.6%	71.7%	15.1%	—	93.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	5.1%	12.7%	27.4%	—	70.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	59.9%	9.0%	25.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	1.6%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	34.6%	24.8%	50.0%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	71.3%	33.4%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	81.0%	36.4%	65.3%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	17.7%	26.9%	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	40.4%	37.6%	43.2%	—	62.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	59.9%	19.0%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	91.8%	39.8%	67.0%	0.0%	66.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	87.9%	41.6%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	73.6%	71.8%	84.5%	—	55.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	55.6%	80.2%	0.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	41.9%	83.2%	36.3%	0.0%	38.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	50.0%	66.4%	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	61.1%	66.9%	14.4%	25.6%	74.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	50.0%	68.7%	65.1%	—	75.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	61.9%	80.9%	71.6%	33.1%	73.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	19.1%	61.0%	44.4%	—	84.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	33.1%	54.3%	37.2%	92.2%	81.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	76.4%	45.5%	—	85.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	17%	67.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗