KSMF / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Sacramento, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

90%

78%

17%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.15u · ICON −43.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:20+00:00	76.2%	73.3%	68.0%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	76.2%	73.3%	68.0%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	76.2%	73.3%	68.0%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	76.2%	73.3%	68.0%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	76.2%	69.1%	70.7%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	76.2%	69.1%	70.7%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	76.2%	69.1%	70.7%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	76.2%	69.1%	70.7%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	55.7%	69.1%	70.6%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	55.7%	66.9%	70.6%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:55+00:00	55.7%	66.9%	70.6%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	55.7%	66.9%	70.6%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	55.7%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	55.7%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	55.7%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	30.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	65.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	65.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	65.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	63.4%	44.4%	65.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	63.4%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	89.0%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	97.6%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	65.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	97.5%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	98.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	97.5%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	98.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	97.5%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	98.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	97.5%	66.9%	64.9%	41.3%	98.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:50+00:00	97.5%	66.9%	64.9%	27.6%	98.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	97.5%	70.1%	61.1%	27.6%	98.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	97.5%	70.1%	61.1%	27.6%	98.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	97.5%	70.1%	61.1%	27.6%	98.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	93.4%	70.1%	61.1%	27.6%	98.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	93.4%	70.0%	61.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:46+00:00	93.4%	70.8%	61.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	93.4%	70.8%	61.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	93.4%	70.8%	61.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	93.4%	70.8%	65.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	93.4%	70.8%	65.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	93.4%	70.8%	65.0%	27.7%	98.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	65.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	65.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	65.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	65.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	63.1%	70.8%	65.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	63.4%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	61.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	61.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	63.1%	70.7%	61.0%	97.8%	74.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:34+00:00	80.1%	70.7%	61.0%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	80.1%	70.7%	61.0%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	80.1%	70.7%	61.0%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	80.1%	70.7%	61.0%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	80.1%	70.7%	65.1%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	80.1%	70.7%	65.1%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	80.1%	69.8%	65.1%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	80.1%	69.8%	65.1%	41.8%	17.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	79.0%	69.8%	65.1%	41.8%	17.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	79.0%	69.8%	65.1%	41.8%	17.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00	89.2%	67.6%	78.8%	71.2%	93.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	89.2%	67.6%	88.8%	71.2%	93.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	89.2%	67.6%	88.8%	71.2%	93.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	89.2%	67.6%	88.8%	71.2%	93.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	89.2%	67.6%	88.8%	71.2%	93.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00	89.1%	67.6%	88.8%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	89.1%	67.6%	88.8%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	89.1%	67.6%	88.8%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	89.1%	67.6%	88.8%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00	89.1%	71.7%	89.6%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	89.1%	71.7%	89.6%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	89.1%	71.7%	89.6%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	89.1%	71.7%	89.6%	27.1%	71.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	88.1%	71.1%	89.6%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00	88.1%	71.1%	89.6%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	88.1%	71.2%	89.6%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	88.1%	71.2%	89.6%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	88.1%	71.2%	93.5%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	88.1%	71.2%	93.5%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	88.1%	71.2%	93.5%	27.1%	71.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:01+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	93.5%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	93.5%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	93.5%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	93.5%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	93.5%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	83.8%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	92.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	96.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	96.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	86.1%	71.2%	96.2%	51.0%	38.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:51+00:00	88.8%	71.2%	96.2%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	88.8%	71.2%	96.2%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	88.8%	71.2%	96.2%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	88.8%	71.2%	96.2%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	88.8%	71.2%	96.2%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	88.8%	79.2%	97.5%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	88.8%	79.2%	97.5%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	88.8%	79.2%	97.5%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:05+00:00	86.8%	79.2%	97.5%	82.0%	45.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	86.9%	79.2%	97.5%	82.0%	46.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:44+00:00	83.9%	78.5%	95.4%	89.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	83.9%	78.5%	95.4%	89.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	83.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	83.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	83.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	46.6%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	92.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	16.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	92.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	16.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	92.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	16.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	92.9%	78.5%	97.1%	89.7%	16.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	17%	67.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSMF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSMF-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Sacramento high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗